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Proving History: Bayes's Theorem and the Quest for the Historical Jesus, by Richard C. Carrier
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This in-depth discussion of New Testament scholarship and the challenges of history as a whole proposes Bayes’s Theorem, which deals with probabilities under conditions of uncertainty, as a solution to the problem of establishing reliable historical criteria. The author demonstrates that valid historical methods—not only in the study of Christian origins but in any historical study—can be described by, and reduced to, the logic of Bayes’s Theorem. Conversely, he argues that any method that cannot be reduced to this theorem is invalid and should be abandoned.
Writing with thoroughness and clarity, the author explains Bayes’s Theorem in terms that are easily understandable to professional historians and laypeople alike, employing nothing more than well-known primary school math. He then explores precisely how the theorem can be applied to history and addresses numerous challenges to and criticisms of its use in testing or justifying the conclusions that historians make about the important persons and events of the past. The traditional and established methods of historians are analyzed using the theorem, as well as all the major "historicity criteria" employed in the latest quest to establish the historicity of Jesus. The author demonstrates not only the deficiencies of these approaches but also ways to rehabilitate them using Bayes’s Theorem.
Anyone with an interest in historical methods, how historical knowledge can be justified, new applications of Bayes’s Theorem, or the study of the historical Jesus will find this book to be essential reading.
From the Hardcover edition.
- Sales Rank: #280679 in eBooks
- Published on: 2012-04-03
- Released on: 2012-04-03
- Format: Kindle eBook
Review
"[C]arefully exposes what happens when sound methodology meets biblical studies. . . . Proving History is a brilliant lesson in the proper proportioning of belief to evidence. Even minimal attention to Bayesian probability theory reveals just how much of Jesus scholarship confuses ‘possibly true’ with ‘probably true.’ The only miracle Richard Carrier has left to explain is why so few appreciate that extraordinary claims require extraordinary support."
-Dr. Malcolm Murray, Author of The Atheist’s Primer
"Carrier applies his philosophical and historical training to maximum effect in outlining a case for the use of Bayes’s Theorem in evaluating biblical claims. Even biblical scholars, who usually are not mathematically inclined, may never look at the ‘historical Jesus’ the same way again."
-Dr. Hector Avalos, Professor of religious studies, Iowa State University, and author of , The End of Biblical Studies
About the Author
Richard C. Carrier, an independent scholar with a doctorate in ancient history from Columbia University, is the author of Why I Am Not a Christian: Four Conclusive Reasons to Reject the Faith; Not the Impossible Faith: Why Christianity Didn’t Need a Miracle to Succeed; and Sense and Goodness without God: A Defense of Metaphysical Naturalism. He has also contributed chapters to The End of Christianity, edited by John W. Loftus; Sources of the Jesus Tradition: Separating History from Myth, edited by R. Joseph Hoffmann; The Christian Delusion: Why Faith Fails, edited by John W. Loftus; and The Empty Tomb: Jesus beyond the Grave, edited by Robert Price and Jeffery Lowder.
Most helpful customer reviews
1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
Not for the complete novice, but a very good tool for historians and historiographers.
By J. McJakome
As a trained historian [though not practicing] I give the author and the text high marks for organizing in a more scientific way the historiographic methods that I learned in a way that was almost more art than science. This particular work is very heavy on formulae, which would make it a bit difficult for the casual reader. The formulae are part of the Bayes Theorem which is thoroughly explained with both formulae and textual explanation. The difficult parts can be read around, especially if the reader has some grounding in historiography, critical thinking, and possibly in civics, anthropology and sociology.
The reason why these would be helpful is that the core of the discussion is in how to correctly assess or evaluate evidence and understand it in context. For lovers of history, it is necessary to have some experience weighing different interpretations of historical events. A keeper.
0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
... non-mathematician but the underlying logic is spot on and easily grasped by the non-mathematician
By Herbert H. Hoover
The formulas are quite challenging for the non-mathematician but the underlying logic is spot on and easily grasped by the non-mathematician.
98 of 112 people found the following review helpful.
Brilliant Book but Not For Everyone
By Book Fanatic
This is an amazing book by Richard Carrier. It is important to note that this book is not a book on whether or not Jesus was a historical person. Dr. Carrier is writing a second book to follow up this one called "On the Historicity of Jesus Christ" that will address that question. He does touch on the subject somewhat in this book, but the purpose of this book is to lay the theoretical groundwork for the next volume.
The present volume argues, and argues quite persuasively that historians should employ Bayes's Theorem in their work and of course that includes work on the historical Jesus. Regardless of what you think about that subject, if you are a thinking person, I think you should read this book. If you care about how we know what we know and how likely your beliefs are to be correct you should read this book. In that regard it is excellent. It does have a fairly narrow focus but that focus is on something that has incredibly wide application.
I'm just a lay person interested in science, history, and philosophy among other things. I'm not a professor or specialist in any relevant fields. I found this book an incredibly helpful guide to rigorous thought. This book is definitely not for everyone. Sometimes the author talks too much, but the points are valid and you just need to work through them. This is not light reading, although it is written in a way to be accessible to intelligent readers. You must be willing to put in some work if you are not already well versed in the theory.
I can't wait for the follow up volume where Dr. Carrier actually applies all this to the subject of a historical Jesus. I've now read several of Carrier's books and seen him on some video clips. He's a very articulate man and always seems to have something brilliant to say. I admit that I'm a fan.
Highly recommended to serious readers.
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